- Trump didn’t interfere in voting after all, and he accepts the results. I was among the more apocalyptic, I figured a 30% chance of serious interference. I am very glad to be wrong. Hearing Trump talk about the results – he sounds like a normal president. Normal is good.
- Trump did a terrible job picking GOP candidates, supporting candidates, giving them issues to run on… just like in the 2022 election, his handpicked candidates were terrible choices and led to the GOP losing winnable seats. (For instance, here in Georgia, Raphael Warnock beat Herschel Walker, he would have lost to most normal candidates.) Ken Paxton? He’s a literal criminal. Trump now says he had to support Paxton, but he obviously did not..
- Winning both houses is amazing. Having good margins is important. We needed 51 for Senate control, we have 55 or more. This leads to more positive outcomes:
- To get a fillibuster-proof majority, bills only need to get five Republican instead of ten.
- Both parties vote big monolithic blocks. This isn’t good. A large margin allows for more intra-party disputes. You can have a few nutty socialist ideas on the fringe. A large margin allows for a few ‘mavericks’. Those new blue Senators in deep red states will need to break from the pack sometimes, or else we just lose those states right back. A large margin enables that.
- A large margin means that we can suffer a worse outcome in 2028 and still keep the Senate. That is vital for the Supreme Court. Four years controlling the process is massively better than only two.
- The governor flips are underrated, as well as the many down ballot victories for the Democrats — State Attorney Generals, Secretary of States, Lieutenant Governors and so on. These are the positions that deal with redistricting, election law, running elections, who gets charged for violating laws, suing or not suing the Federal government, and more. It massively reduces the voting hijinks these red states are always doing. Maybe we can make actual progress on gerrymandering?
- The democratic victories in deep red states are stunning. These are clearly votes against the GOP, not for the Democratic candidates. Let’s remember that the Democratic party also has very bad perceptions. Their candidates were good enough to ride the wave. These are likely to be more than a one-election result though. If you’ve been willing to cross over to vote blue once, you are going to consider it next time. If you know that your fellow citizens are willing to vote blue, you’re more likely to consider it next time. Incumbents have huge advantages as well.
- Muttroxia readers know I support the National Popular Vote. This outcome brings it closer to reality. There are 48 electoral votes to go. Both Michigan and Wisconsin now have trifectas of Democratic leadership. Both states had previous efforts die from GOP opposition. If these states pass it, that is 25 more electoral votes. Update: Also Arizona, Nevada, and big ol’ Pennsylvania – which adds up to 61 votes. Holy schnike, this might happen.
- It is not my perfect voting method, but I vastly prefer Ranked Choice Voting to the status quo. A better term for it might be, “Instant runoff”. If neither Peltola or Sullivan cross 50%, the folks who voted for the 3rd and 4th place candidates have already pre-expressed their next best options. There is no need for a runoff, the system just runs the numbers and the result comes out.
- Like everyone else, I wonder what the priorities of the new Democratic congress will be. It’s vital to avoid overshooting. The GOP would still be in power if Trump hadn’t overshot. He had good reasons (to him) to do it, but it costs. It is important that the Dems hold on to these new seats. You do that by not getting too far out of step with the voters. I am a moderate Democrat, so of course I think that moderate policies is the right answer!
Any way you look at it, a remarkable night. This was the first election my three children could all vote, it felt great to deliver our five votes and see history made.
3. Poorly written, mea culpa. What I meant was that despite all the pressure leading up to the election, there has been no effort to fight the results. Armies of lawyers didn’t descend on key districts. ICE didn’t suddenly show up in blue cities. The results have been openly accepted and conceded. The concession speeches have been gracious. Trump and the GOP have said they will work with the Democrats going forward. All of that is normal.
4. Yep. Dropping of crazy lawsuits from Texas alone is a big win. Maybe there’s an opening for genuine voting reform, trading off security for access. Who knows. So many openings now.
A few comments:
1. Just a great night. I’m 57 and I may not see a better election night again, although with presidential elections the stakes are obviously higher.
2. I wholeheartedly agree with the importance of the Senate gap. We have six years of Democratic senators in OH, NC, SC, TX, KS and others. That would have been unfathomable just a few months ago. Those are banked for 6 years. So if Ds hold serve on their usual states and they almost certainly hold the Senate through 2028 and maybe 2030 too. Given the Mitch McConnell precedent in Supreme Court vacancies, that means no Republican additions to the court for quite a while.
3. You have a low bar of Trump acting normal in the aftermath of the election. Lambasting Governor Abbott as a RINO. Saying the Rs would have won in a landslide if he was on the ballot. Posting photo of a hat that says VETO on it. Rambling for 20 minutes on Fox election night coverage how candidates blew the races not him (even though HE picked many of the candidates, including the most catastrophic ones like Paxton, Darline, etc). “Normal”. ?
4. Other considerations of election impact. Governorships in all the swing states, ensuring no shenanigans for future election denialism. State houses flipping in an era of gerrymandering (another precedent set by the Rs this cycle). Gigantic House majority that will make it easier to govern and progress not being halted by squeaky wheels or more extreme members. And Trump’s lack of accountability for election results likely ensuring similar missteps in next 2 years, leading to an impossible predicament for Vance, who has to agree with every stupid policy or opinion (see his take on the Vivek ad or claim he hadn’t seen any corruption).