Author: Muttrox

The omens were horrible. I had been battling Montezuma’s Revenge all day. I untwisted the front wheel of my bike to ride it to the poker game and the entire brake caliper snapped in half. Not good omens at all.

I was determined to play tight. I didn’t play many pots. I didn’t have to show my cards during the first 90 minutes or so. Everyone was folding before me. That was nice, since I never got premium cards. I found myself with a small lead.

With blinds at 100-200, the player to my left raises to 500. There is one caller. Then an all-in bet of 1850. I look down and see pocket kings. O my, I couldn’t ask for a better time! I call. His pocket queens don’t hold up, and I find myself almost 3,000 richer. I felt bad for him, he made absolutely the right play, just happened to run into kings at the wrong time.

Blinds at 200-400. It’s raised to 1,200. From the big blind I have K-J of clubs, that’s worth calling. The flop has two clubs and nothing else. I decide to push a little (I am the big stack after all) and throw in another 1,200. It’s called. The turn is a blank. I check. He goes all in with his remaining 2,300. Seeing as how any ace or board pair beats me, I am probably behind. I figure I have 15 outs on the river: 3 kings, 3 jacks, and 9 clubs. That’s 30-35%. Plus there’s the chance that the other guy is bluffing. It costs me 2,300 to get back over 7K. With the pot odds on my side I call. He has an ace. The river is another club, I get my flush and knock him out. Note to self: That’s a bad beat in my favor!

Blinds at 400-800, we’re down to 4 players. At this point any ace is a good hand. With A-7, I raise to 1,800. The next guy goes all-in. I reluctantly fold.
The very next hand I have A-4, I again raise to 1,800. This time he calls. The flop is A-10-7, he goes all-in. I don’t know what to do. It feels like he’s pushing me around, but there are a lot of hands that can beat me. I call. He has A-Q and it holds up. It’s lucky I was the big stack. That hands knocks me way down, but I’m still in it.

I don’t remember a lot of the rest. I got some good cards and some good reads and some good luck and made my way back to the lead. We eventually get back to heads up at 1,000-2,000 (there’s 35,000 chips in play). On the very hand I call his all-in with Q-J and get knocked down to about 12K. I fight back a little. But it’s 11:45. We’re exhausted. We have to close up the pool and we have work the next day. He offers a chop, with him getting an extra $10 on top. I agree.

Tonight: $70
Running Total: I haven’t put this up lately because it’s so depressing. I figure with this win I’m somewhere around -$50. I’m going to use that.

I was folding laundry for the kids. Because it was slowing me down so much I noticed that most of the shirts were inside out. Why is that? Is there any reason they should all be inside out? What are the odds of this happening randomly. Time to run some numbers.

33 shirts
24 or them inside out.
Probability of that (or worse happening)?

Two-tenths of one percent.

Conclusion: My kids hate me.

Skydyne tech support emails

Stupid crook of the month

The one thing duct tape won’t work on.

Book review

Beatles Rockband is here

Superhero economics. Really. How come as soon as someone in the comics gets rich, they buy some crazy suit and start trying to destroy or save the world? Clearly having five million dollars makes you insane. And how long would it take The Flash and few others to rebuild the World Trade Center? Why doesn’t anyone go into construction?

Body intake and output diagram

A brief animated history of weed

This should make George Bush’s head explode

Iowa marks the birthplace of it’s best-known citizen. 200 years before it happens.

If you like tennis…

I may never stop using this music tool

Pixar vs the Rest. What an incredible run.

Google’s economist

Photos that changed the world. I can tell I’m a parent, the pictures of children make my heart stop.

Geography and the economy: The Jared Diamond style perspective on the recession

Store owner gives robber $40 and bread, robber breaks down.

(We have a Power Wheels Jeep we bought at a yard sale a couple years ago. The battery died recently. It wouldn’t take a recharge. We bought a new battery. They’ve been driving it around all morning.)

Him: Dad, we stopped using the Jeep.
Me: Why?
Him: We didn’t want to waste the battery. We want to save it for later!
Me: Oh. That’s good thinking. But you know, the battery doesn’t need to be saved. You can use it all day. If the battery runs out we can recharge it overnight.
Him: ?
Me: Okay. You know how batteries run out, right? When this runs out, we plug it into the wall with a special tool called a “recharger”, and that gives it new energy.
Him: Why didn’t we do that for the old battery then?
Me: Good question. We did. But each time we recharge it, it comes back just a little bit less than it did before. So if you use it enough times recharging doesn’t do very much. We used it so many times that it was all used up. That’s why we needed to buy a new battery.
Him: Oh! But we don’t use it very much.
Me: Sure you do. We’ve had it for two years. And don’t forget that Mom bought it from another kid. So there’s all the times he used it also. That’s a lot, right?
Him: What? I thought we got it from Santa!
Me: Um… what?
Him: We got it for Christmas one year, don’t you remember?
Me: Really? Are you sure?
Him: Dad! Yes! It was in our driveway at Christmas! Santa brought it!
Me: Uh.. I’m not sure about that. Anyhow, why don’t you go play on it some more.
Him: Okay (going down stairs) but we really did get it at Christmas.
Me: [weakly] Well, maybe Santa got it from the other kid.
Him: Dad! Why would Santa need to steal a Jeep!!!??
Me: Okay. You win. Go outside and play.

In the early going I min-raise in with A-9. Only one other caller. The flop is K-J-7. I bet a couple hundred and he calls. I figure he has K-x. The turn is an A. I figure I have him beat. I have him read as K-x. Now my Aces beat his Kings. I put in a couple more hundred and he calls. The river is a blank. I put in 500. He comes over the top with 1000. Oh man, he can’t have K-A can he? Or any other two pair? I have to call. He turns over pocket 7s. His set takes me down. I never saw it coming. I really thought I had the correct read. Short-stacked, I get knocked out quickly and rebuy.

I played A-9 four times and lost every single time. The fifth time I decided to play conservative and fold it. The flop was 9-9-x. Sigh!!

I played well the next two hours. I have a below average, but not super small stack in the final eight players. I am playing tight. The blinds are at 200-400. The player under the gun pushes in to 1000. I look down at Ad-Qd. I go all in with 2,350. To my suprise a third player calls as well as the 1,000 bettor. The flop is A-J-10. I feel pretty good with top pair and a very high kicker. One of the other player goes all in, the third player folds. We flip up our cards. He has K-Q and has flopped the straight, I get knocked out.

I wonder why he called. K-Q is a pretty good hand, but to call a 1,000 better and an all-in with it? It is just me or is that a foolhardy bet that happened to hit?

Postscript: It’s the day after, I’m reviewing in my head. It’s true I’ve gone all in with marginal hands a few times. If it had been just him and me it could be considered a reasonable gamble on his part. However when one player had raised and when I had raised all-in, calling it with K-Q is a bad play. It’s very likely you don’t have the best hand, and you can’t bluff me out when I’m all-in already. It was a bad play by him.

Coincidentally, it was the same guy who had the pocket 7s earlier. Also coincidentally, two hands before K-Q had called an all-in against A-A. Two kings came up on the board. Maybe he just figured K-Q was lucky.

One bad hand. That’s all it takes, just one hand played badly…

I started strong. It was one of my best outings ever. Within an hour I had doubled. By 90 minutes I was at 3x the starting stack. Everything was working. I connected on flops. I bluffed when I didn’t. I folded to hands that turned out to be stronger. I made out that I was even luckier than I really was. No one wanted to mess with me. I was finally playing the big stack, pushing people around and picking up cheap pots here and there. And I was doing it all without being dumb. I was following my own advice.

When we cut down to one table, I was still well above average. I continued playing well but the cards were starting to turn on me a little. And the blinds started going up.

I found myself with ~9K, average stack was 5K. The blinds were at 300-600. I was dealt 9-10 diamonds. According to Phil Laak on Poker After Dark, suited connectors will hit the straight or flush 40% of the time. This was my 3rd hand playing suited connectors that night. I limped in. It was raised to 1500. There was one caller before me. Betting 900 to get 3,600 seemed like good odds, I called. The flop was 8d, a Jack and a blank. I checked. There was a bet of 1,000 by the chip leader. The other player folded.

Here is where I got dumb. I had 3 cards to a straight and 3 cards to a flush. There were no scare cards on the board. I thought “If I get lucky I can double up easily. I’m going to take the chance.” So I chased. By the time the river came I still had nothing and had to fold with 10 high. I was down to 5K. In one stupid hand chasing I had knocked myself down to small stack.

Five people left. Top three finish in the money. Blinds have moved up to 400-800, so I have about 7 big blinds. I have just enough money left to push someone out of a pot or two. The blinds are coming around, I need to make a move. I get Q-10, that’s good enough for me! I go all-in. I’m called against A-10 and knocked out. Afterwards I find out that the top four (not three) finished in the money, which might have altered my play.

Very frustrating. I think I played extremely well except for one hand, and ended up as bubble boy.

I learned a beautiful new song on guitar this week. Lovely picking, interesting mournful melodies, clever ways of picking up the sus4 and major7. I played it for Mrs Muttrox. She agreed it was a very pretty song.

Only it isn’t. Because it’s a Roger Waters song. The song is Goodbye Blue Sky from The Wall. It is about how the nice blue sky becomes a source of pain and death, and what should be a nice part of any childhood is just one more way to get hurt.

I think this is why Pink Floyd split up. I think the rest of the band just got sick of every song being about paranoia and death and horror and pain and misery and forgodsake Roger can’t you write anything remotely pleasant? Take some Prozac or something.

Did you see LeBron sink that shot? Did you see that!?

If you are even a casual basketball fan, you should be watching the playoffs. For the last two weeks nearly every single day has featured a memorable game. Both games of both conference finals have been terrific. Do yourself a favor and tune in.

The covers for W’s briefings. Scary. Rumsfeld starting putting these Bible quotes on the covers of briefings to reinforce his points with the religiously inclined Bush.

Go Montana go!

Butterfly wish

It’s official. No one cares about your garage band

This math was not needed.

Very harsh roommate confession

Play them off Keyboard Cat!: Unlucky child, Dick Cheney, and Steven Colbert.

Prioritizing Layoffs

Karma Sheetra

I smell funny business

I found this far too funny

Great Governator quotes (scroll to end):

Comparative religion

Beer pong ringers

Taking Alice in Wonderland to the next level

One difference between the USA and Britain.

An interesting digital clock made of 24 analog clocks

Why curveballs work. Amazing illusion.

Jesse Ventura: “You give me a waterboard, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I’ll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders.”

Inside one of Randi’s tests for psychics.

I’m having a bad run. It’s been a long time since I finished in the money, much less won.

Some of it is bad cards. Last week my best hand in two hours of play was A-J. Last night I did get some good starters. K-A twice. Pocket 3s twice and pocket 6s once. That’s reasonably good. None of these hands connected on the flop. Not once. In the last two weeks I haven’t finished with a hand higher than two pair. And that has happened once. Generally, I have nothing or a pair. That makes it hard to win. It means a lot of bluffing. It makes a huge difference to get a set once a night or so. I don’t know the odds on that, but I don’t think that’s two much to ask.

It’s time to reset myself. Here are my resolutions for the next few weeks.

• Play less hands: I need to be more patient. I can’t get sucked into playing hands like A-5 just because I’m in position and it seems like a good time to push. I love stealing blinds but I have to try it less.
• Don’t raise as much pre-flop:I’ve been raising a lot with hands like A-9, K-10, Q-J. If no one calls I win, and if they call I have a decent shot at winning anyhow. I need to reduce that. Those are pre-flop calling hands.
• Trap:I haven’t had many cards I can trap with, but if I ever get them… Since my reputation is increasingly loose (plays marginal hands, goes all-in without power cards), I can use that to my advantage.
• Body language: Pay more attention to tells that other players might be giving off. Work harder to reduce any that I have. When I’m not in a hand, make a guess what the players have and see how well I do.

In other words, play more conservatively. In the last year I’ve learned to bluff and play loose. I’ve swung too far in that direction, it’s time to come back.

Pierce did not play well. Celtics shots did not go in. Magic shots did. End of story.

I’m glad it was a blowout. If we had only lost by one or two shots I would be reliving all the could-have-beens, Howard not getting called on at least two goaltending, bunny shots that didn’t go in, etc. It’s better this way.

Good luck Orlando. You’re gonna need it!

The human-designed world is often not well designed. One of the canonical examples of using design well is the newspaper stand at an airport or train station. In many of them it is surprisingly difficult to actually process your transaction. If you have a briefcase or suitcase with you, the things you want to buy in another, a newspaper or umbrella being held under an arm, how can you actually pay? Put your things away, hand the cashier the goods, wait for them to ring it up, give them money, wait for change, try and put the change away while holding all the other things, take your items and put them somewhere, and finally move off. A smart person put a large counter at one of these stands with plenty of room to put all your items, room underneath to hold suitcase or briefcase, and long enough that you could move out of the away while gathering your belongings, thus freeing up the space and time for the next customer. This simple change sent sales through the roof.

Why do I bring this up? Years ago at work I suggested to management that we put shelves up in the bathrooms. (To the co-workers who read this, yep, that was me. If only we’d had the Innovation Garage then I’d be the 2003 grand prize winner.) If you came in with any papers or electronics there was nowhere to put them. You hoped that the area around the sink was dry or you had to hold your business stuff while doing your business. They put up shelves in all the bathrooms. I was a very pleased customer. Now you throw your items on the shelf, do the deed, and pick up your things on the way out.

The other day I came into the bathroom and found this:

Flowers are nice. The bathroom is understandably drab and putting in a bit of foliage made it that much nicer. But, it interfered with the whole point of the shelf! Now if my things are too big there isn’t enough room. Even if they are small enough I have to spend precious time maneuvering them around to make sure they are balanced and don’t knock over the flower. I know it doesn’t matter that much in the long run and that’s it’s only a few seconds but I still incredibly annoyed. A beautiful solution to a problem and then someone just goes and throws up another impediment. C’mon people!

Postscript: The people did indeed come on. I moved the flower to the sink area. A week or two later it was gone.

Postscript: I drafted this post a long time ago. There’s another one there this week.