Roy Moore Post-Mortem

Most of the obvious points have been covered already. I enjoyed this post from Matt Yglesias, particularly the role of luck and comparing it to Donald Trumps successes. A couple other thoughts:

1) Voter Suppression

Turnout in the black and poor demographic was very high. If it hadn’t been, Moore would have beaten Jones. You can bet we will see renewed efforts by the GOP to put up more barriers to voting. The populace has turned against them years ago, they have retained their majority through (among other things) gerrymandering and making it hard to vote. Look for more bills about voter IDs, less location open for less hours, more stripping felons of rights, difficulty for students to vote, less early voting, less automatic registrations. You will see no efforts to make it harder for retirees or the military to vote.

2) Moderation

One of the unfortunate aspects of our party primary systems is how it discourages centrists. To win a primary it doesn’t help to have the majority of all the voters on your sides, it only matters to have most of the voters from your own party. A candidate with appeal to both parties is at a disadvantage. Futhermore, if there are multiple candidates, the one who is unlike the rest can win (the ‘normal’ vote gets split.
In a Republican primary, the crazies often win. Perhaps less on the Democrat side, but the same logic applies. This is how you get the Tea Party. They haven’t been very successful at general elections, but they’ve managed to win a lot of primaries.
When one of the crazies (Roy Moore) loses, it creates an incentive for more moderate Republicans to run. It creates an incentive for voters to vote for more moderate candidates in the primaries. And the same applies on the Democratic side.
Donald Trump aside, the lesson I hope that is being taught is that getting attention and winning the primary is very different than winning office. More centrist candidates from both parties are good for all of us.

My Latest Favorite Song #15: Mull of Kintyre (Paul McCartney and Wings)

This was one of the best-selling songs of all time in the United Kingdom. You’ve probably never heard it in the United States.

I don’t know any other big hits featuring the bagpipes, does anyone else?

How Weird are Medical Expenses?

Trivia: This summer, I dealt with a kidney stone and my son broke his arm. How much do you think the total charges were?

One answer is: Just over $50,000.
Another answer is: Just over $6,600.

You see a few things when you look at the bills.
1) Lots of charges for things I never really consented to. I never consented because they were never really discussed. Certainly not in terms of financial impact.
2) Lots of high charges. Most seem pretty reasonable considering how well our bodies were fixed. But then you see the charge for someone standing in the room for ten minutes, over $100.
3) Huge discrepancy between pre-insurance and post-insurance. That’s the difference in those two numbers.
4) Huge discrepancies between the percentage insurance paid. Most were paid off at ~90%. But half the final bill, $3,387 dollars came from one charge that was paid at only 50%. And it was very similar to a previous charge. I should have investigated more on this one.
5) The exact same thing, for $883 dollars, was done on two different days (part of pre-op). The description was printed on the bill the exact same way both times. One time, insurance covered all but $61.20, the second time it was $55.20. I assume the difference is because of the intricate vagaries of exactly how someone coded it.

Goodbye Tom Price

Tom Price was a terrible congressman for Georgia. I don’t mean he was ineffective, I mean he fought for terrible policies firmly in line with hard right ideology. It was a pleasure to see him go to Washington and fall on his face. After a hard fought race, the GOP retained his seat with a narrow win over Jon Ossoff, but Karen Handel will be that much less effective than Price was, and is lower on the seniority later. All in all, a net loss for the Republicans.

Good riddance to bad trash.

Trump: Picking the Worst

As Donald Trump prepares to become the most powerful person in the world, it is hard to know where to push back. There are so many aspects to the awfulness, you have to step back and prioritize the outrage. As bad as he is with women and other groups, the march on Washington is small potatoes. Who cares if he’s a sexist pig. Who cares if he builds a wall or not. Doesn’t matter if Jeff Sessions was a racists. In the larger picture, these don’t matter. So what does?

    Existential Threat to Human Existence: Nuclear Annihilation

After Reagan/Gorbachev/Bush, the world became significantly safer. Nuclear weaponry was gradually reduced and controlled. Successive administrations continued this trend. The threat of nuclear global war by superpowers has more or less gone away. The greater threat has been rouge actors. (In the 2004 election, Bush II and Kerry agreed the biggest threat to national security was nuclear proliferation via terrorist groups.) Follow The Doomsday Clock for a fascinating view of this threat.

Conversely, Trump has been consistent about expanding America’s nuclear capabilities, as well as our allies and the world in general. This is despite gross ignorance (not understanding Japans relationship with the military, the nuclear triad, or much of anything).

As I write this, Trump is again talking about disbanding NATO. Likely he holds this view primarily as a negotiating tactic. America has an enormous strength in nuclear weaponry, and we should leverage that threat to get what we want. In addition, unpredictability brings its own benefits. This is usually referred to as “The Madman Theory”, first played out by Trumps hero, Richard Nixon. The benefits of this strategy are real, but they pale against the possible consequence, the end of all human life. It’s amazing that sentence ever needed to be written. You don’t screw around with nuclear war. Policy that wagers human existence against geopolitical advantage is literally insane.

    Existential Threat to Human Existence: Global Warming

On all of Earth, there is only major political party that denies the existence of global warming and the role of humans in it. That is the Republican party of The United States of America. It’s incredible that this one political coalition could imperil life on earth, but there it is. Trump has taken on these beliefs as well. Per usual, it is difficult to understand if he has a clear stance
or has thought very hard about the issue. There may be “some connectivity”, but it’s all a Chinese Hoax. Or something.

Divining his stance is fascinating, but action is where the rubber hits the road. He has been consistently against efforts to control global warming: promising rollbacks of regulations, backing out of the Paris Treaty, nominating deniers to positions of power. Once again, it is hard to overstate how real a threat this is. The consequence of insufficient action is the elimination of our species.

    Threats to American Democracy

These are harder to categorize, but Trump and the current GOP represent a real threat to the American Experiment.

America under control by a foreign power: There is little doubt that Russia attempted to influence the election. There is little doubt that Trump and his inner circle have deep connections to the Kremlin and Russia, and will never reveal what they are. Whether you believe Trump is a willing participant or not, it is self-evident that he has allowed a foreign power to strike at the core of our democracy.

It is great to see elements of the GOP pushing back on this, though it’s a bit late. (Hey John McCain, you endorsed Trump, remember!?)

Corruption of the presidency: Trump is already monetizing the new presidency. The mixing of his commercial and political roles is self-evidently corrupt. His model is Russian kleptocracy. He has shown no remorse or any inclination to stop. Pushing through nominees before background checks and conflicts of interest are vetted.

Partisanship above country: The GOP in general keeps moving further down a bad road. Undermining of the democratic process, both in law and accepted norms: Gerrymandering, vote suppression. Casting unfounded doubts on the voting system, pre-emptively accusing opponents of cheating. Blanket refusal to consider Russia’s influence. Refusal to allow consideration of a Supreme Court nominee, and other judgeships. Refusal to fill executive positions. Playing blackmail and brinksmanship, notably the willingness to shut down the government or default on debt over narrow partisan issues. Escalation of filibuster and similar extraordinary procedures to everyday barriers. Refusal to compromise as an ideological position. Abandonment of positions if the other party supports them (health care, cap and trade for examples). One could go on.

Degradation of facts and free-speech: The modern GOP is anti-fact. (My last real post spoke to this.)
Building their own media echo chamber, banning research in forbidden topics (gun control, marijuana) ideological denial of global-warming, etc. Trump represents a new low. He doesn’t even pretend to deal with facts. I dare any reader to discover Trump engaging with any policy issue in a meaningful, in depth, fact-driven, way. I’ll be waiting. Even on his signature issues of Trade and Immigration he seems to not know what he is talking about or be able to speak past the catchphrase. And he doesn’t care. He lies consistently, continuously, on any topic for any reason. Politifact and similar organizations have been neutered. In any normal election, these graphs would matter.

In addition, Trump is actively pushing back on free speech. He consistently demonizes journalists and journalism. He will not give a press conference. He is open about using his wealth and power to punish journalists, and pre-emptively keep them from reporting on him. He wants to loosen libel laws so he can go after journalists.
Taken together, these add up to genuine threats to American Democracy. Taken together, these add up to genuine threats to American Democracy.

Threats to America, threats to humanity. These outweigh everything else.

The Barry Gibb Talk Show

One of my favorite skits ever is The Barry Gibb Talk Show. From a comedic perspective, I love schticks like this that are several concepts piled on top of each other. The crazy voice, the great song, the anger issues, the juxtoposing of serious political though, the vapidity of Robin, that they are clearly the 1970s version of The Bee Gees, the ad hoc harmonies, so much to love.

Today I realized I had one part wrong. I always assumed that Justin Timberlake and Jimmy Fallon had written the song, much as Timberlake and Samberg did for Dick in a Box. I am now aware there is a fairly famous song by The Bee Gees, Nights on Broadway.

I don’t know if this makes the skits funnier or not for me.

My Latest Favorite Song: #14

Have you ever had a song that you didn’t really like, and then one day you just “got it”? This week, I suddenly “got” Babylon Sisters by Steely Dan.

The drumming is particularly wonderful. Go look up the Purdy Shuffle. This drum beat is also in Rosanna (Toto) and Fool in the Rain (the only good thing in the song). I could listen to those drums all day.

I like music that takes a while to get. It is what I don’t like about most pop music. There are a fair number of pop songs with some substance to them. But for the vast majority, once you’ve heard it twice there is nothing left to hear. There is no subtlety you missed, no bass line that you plays with the harmonies in a way you didn’t notice before, a out-of-key chord that you can hear the tension — it’s all done. That’s one of the reasons children don’t like jazz or classical music — it takes years to develop the ear that can hear what is going on in those genres.

The Internet Delivers: Glasses

I stepped on my glasses this morning, a lens popped out. A little googling, a little youtubing and the below video showed me how to fix it easily.

It is amazing how I take this for granted. Ten years ago I would drive to a glasses store, and hope they would do it for free. Odds are I would pay $20 and spend an hour doing this. Instead, it took me five minutes. We just assume this level of knowledge is out there for everyone to share in. Amazing.

God, I Hate Poker so Much

I did some bar poker this week.

Night one: In three hours, I had pocket 7s once, A-2 another time. That was the best I ever saw. Two bluffs did not work out. Blinded to death.
Night two: A-K suited on the third hand. Raise 6x, two callers. Flop is A-9-8. Check to me, I go all in (about 3x the pot). One caller, he has pocket 8s.

Sigh.