I predict 10-6. 11-5. No, 10-6. Heck with it, 11-5. Why so optimistic?
1) We are an offensive powerhouse. We set every single record there was to set last year. Even if you take away 30% of our points, we’re still very good. Remember when we won our first eight games by an average margin of 20 points (or something absurd like that)?
2) We are a system team. Tom Brady is a system quarterback. The team is not build around Tom Brady’s arm, it’s built around his brain and the brain of everyone on the team. This is an easier team to take over than a team that relies on individual brilliance. Furthermore, Cassell has been studying with Brady for quite a few years now, he knows the system well.
3) Easy schedule. We have the easiest schedule in the NFL this year.
4) We’re already 1-0.
I’d better stop, I’m talking myself into 14-2.
Go Pats!
Okay, time for you to revise that estimate. After getting spanked by Miami and watching not only our offense not do anything, but also having our defense getting burned on a single play run multiple times, I’d have to say that I’m now looking at a 6-10 record this season, even with the good schedule. Sigh…. Sadly, I absolutely believe that this is a team that was built around an excellent QB, and it just will not work without at least a halfway decent QB (which I’m now doubting that Cassel actually is).
I’m not debating 10-6. I’ll give you that, especially after beating up on the Jets yesterday in NJ. I’m debating the value of Brady, just for the hell of it. It’s like Walsh vs. Montana — was Walsh one of the best coaches and offensive minds of all time, was Montana the most clutch QB of all time, or can it possibly be both? I’m asking the Brady vs. Belichick question. You could be boring and say both, or even neither (instead chalking up a lot of their success to the front office). But if you were starting a team right now, would you rather have Belichick as the coach or Brady as the QB? Who’s more valuable?
You raise good points. I can tell you read Cold Hard Football Facts also.
But I’m not picking them for the Super Bowl. I’m not picking them to go 18-0. At the time I wrote this, I was picking them to go 10-5 over the rest of the season (they had one win already). Does 10-5 seems like a stretch? It’s five more losses than last year, that’s a lot!
I also didn’t note their defense. It hasn’t lost anyone important, it’s essentially the same defense as last year. Yes, they’re a year older (only six months older really!) and slower and so on, but this is still one of the elite defenses in the league.
And again, the schedule. We have something like 17 wins in a row against the Bills and Jets, this year we have four games with them. The Dolphins twice. The Raiders. The Rams. The Cardinals. The Seahawks. That’s very possibly ten wins right there. Then there’s the good teams – say we win only 40% of those games: 49ers, Chargers, Broncos, Colts, Steelers. That would bring us to 12-3 of the remaining 15 games (assuming I wrote this before Sundays game), and we only need to go 10-5. Is that really so unrealistic a scenario?
And of course, we did win yesterday. The prediction has reduced to 9-5. If all we do is beat the bad teams while losing every single game against a good team, we still make it.
I disagree with the “Brady is a system quarterback” line. That’s just not giving him enough credit. Belichick’s system has historically been a defensive one, not an offensive one. It’s not like this was the 80s 49ers Brady stepped into. Remember, Belichick has a losing record without Brady (in fact, one winning season out of six, including a couple of miserable 5-11 seasons). I didn’t see him chalking up Super Bowls until Brady stepped in, and it was largely Brady’s grit and determination that led them to those Super Bowls, well before they became an offensive juggernaut. As a Raider fan, I still remember in Brady’s first Super Bowl run breaking Raider fans hearts in the snow in New England — I remember him diving into the end zone, bashing helmets with his teammates, being a supreme motivator, not to mention playing error-free football, and making big plays when he needed to.
Remember, the Belichick vs. Brady debate is still out there — i.e. is Belichick becoming a coaching legend based on his unbelievable QB, or is it as you say, and Brady is just a piece in a brilliant system laid down by the Vince Lombardi of our era? I’m willing to say the former more than the latter — but if Belichick can win with his backup QB, then I will have no problem admitting my error in thinking. If, on the other hand, Belichick goes up in flames this season with 7-9 or something, then there is even more evidence that Belichick is riding Brady’s coattails.
For the record, Belichick is 87-26 with Brady, 40-55 without him. Pretty compelling evidence right there.