Direct questions usually get answers:
First, the disclaimer. I haven’t followed the NBA for a couple years. Now that my beloved Celtics are (a) pretty good, (b) relevant, (c) on TV a lot, and (d) really, really good – I’m following again. I haven’t watched the Suns much, and I haven’t watched the Heat much. With that said, I think it’s a crazy trade. (1) Phoenix is the best team in the West, why do you make any trade? When you’re top, you stand pat. (2) Trading young for old is always risky. The Celtics pulled it off with Garnett, but that’s after we blew with several lesser stars. Gugliotta, Vin whats-his-name the alcoholic, Gary Payton, etc. It’s a big gamble. Why would the Suns gamble? (3) Shaq just ain’t that good anymore. He doesn’t play much, and when he does he isn’t particularly effective. (4) Marion is very good. Frankly, I don’t see any arguments at all in favor of it.
Oh, wait the Kobe thing. (i) Motivation is overrated. All pros are motivated. It’s not as if Shaq’s been playing in neutral the whole time. (ii) I think the Kobe vs. Shaq tiff has been blown out of proportion. I’m sure Shaq isn’t Kobe’s biggest fan, but I doubt they’re arch-enemies. (iii) He can get as pissed as he wants, but he’s over the hill. 14 pts, 8 rebounds a game? That’s not bad, but it ain’t great. And he’s only playing 30 minutes a game, and that’s not going to magically improve no matter how motivated he is. (iv) The time to be motivated was in the off-season. He could have gotten in shape and been truly ready for the season. It’s too late now.
Next question?
Update: Baker. Vin Baker. Uuch!
I recant this whole post. I didn’t even understand what the trade was, that’s what happens when you don’t follow the league that close. I kept hearing Shaq and Stodemire’s name together, I naively thought that the Suns had traded Stodemire for Shaq. Obviously, that is not the case. Marion and Banks for Shaq seems like a good trade.
Oops.
– Best regular season record doesn’t guarantee vicotry (see New England Patriots), but it’s a lot more reliable than not having regular season games. And certainly the West is more competitive right now, wins mean more in the West than the East.
– I’m not sure it’s an either-or. The Jazz are the exception. You really want to be the Spurs, who have a reasonable shot at the title every year. And they always make sure that they don’t bargain away their future. OK, maybe it’s just having Duncan, but same goes for many franchises. Look at the Patriots, they always store draft picks for next year, and they are always competitive.
-15 and 10, 25 minutes a night is not enough in my opinion.
To respond:
-Best regular season doesn’t translate into playoff success (see Dallas last year). Your regular season record is fluffed up with a lot of games against non-playoff teams. Also, the style of play in the playoffs tends to be slower than regular season games. So, having the best record after half a season is no reason to stand pat.
– Would you rather be Miami, ie a team that wins 1 title and sinks back to mediocrity relatively quickly, or the Jazz of the 90s, who were competitive for many years, but never won a title? Judging by the way pro athletes talk, it sounds like they’d sell their mother for 1 title. So, trading young for old is worth it if you have a finite window and you’re looking for the extra push that takes you from making a decent playoff run to seriously contending for the title.
-I think Marion’s over-rated (a good player, but not a consistent all-star) and was disposable on the Suns, who have plenty of interchangeable parts at that spot.
The whole issue is Shaq’s health. Clearly they think he has something in the tank for the next year or two. I think if he can give them 15 and 10, play 20-5 minutes a night, and be around come playoff time, it will be worth it.