Last night I knocked out a player who was so stunned at how it went down he couldn’t talk for ten minutes. And if I had been in his shoes I would have felt the same way. But from where I stood, it was a perfectly logical sequence of events.
Readers: Did I play this right, or did I just get extremely lucky?
I was playing loose. I bluffed a lot. I showed my bluff cards a few times also. I was having fun, but also hoping to set up that big play where my huge raise with premium cards would be discounted and get callers.
I had a stack of 6,000 or so, a bit above average. I was dealt 9-3 offsuit as dealer.
Preflop:
Everyone folded to me and the blinds. Sure I only had 9-3, but I raised the blinds from 200 to 600, hoping to steal. It was certainly an aggressive play, but not crazy, right? The small blind folded. The big blind thought about it, and re-raised, up to 1,200. What to do?
I had no read on him, but he could certainly be re-raising with nothing. I would be getting a good return on my money (calling 600 to win 2,500). And I have a feeling that I can push him out after the flop with a continuation bet. Certainly this is not an obvious play, to call him with total junk. But I don’t think it’s crazy either. I called.
The flop:
The flop is 9-7-4 (or something very similar). I have top pair. I am still planning a big continuation bet, hoping to push him out. But he beats me to the punch, with a healthy bet of 2,000.
But I think I have the best hand. Very roughly speaking – he either has an overpair (I have 5 outs, about a 20% chance of pulling it out), he has two high cards (I’m favored at about 75%), or he has junk (I’m heavily favored). I am mostly worried that he had junk and got luckier than me, he could have 7-4 or a straight draw or something. I also think that even if he has pocket 10s or something similar, an all-in bet might make him fold. I would be showing a consistent story of premium cards that he might have to respect.
I go all-in, another 3,200 or so on top. He moans, and grudgingly calls. He turns over A-K. He did have premium cards. But he doesn’t pair up, and I win the hand to knock him out. He is understandably incredulous that I called his pre-flop raise with 9-3.
So, readers, am I just a stupid player with a lot of luck, or did I take reasonable chances and get a little lucky along the way?
I believe it’s 1/3 math, 1/3 game instinct and 1/3 reading people – that’s why guys like Matesow always brag that he doesn’t need to hit hands to win in poker. You can’t consistently win against good players with just math, because almost all top players know the math. That’s why I tell Muttrox to advance his game beyond just math and am happy to see he’s testing the waters on it.
I think the thing I like most about this post is how it reveals how we think differently about this game. Mutt and Krasimir are very math-oritented, which is clearly a strength. I think I’ve always tended to play more on instinct, which I’m sure would get me crushed if I was playing against some really good players. But I think I tend to play against pretty poor players overall, and they’re not thinking about the math either….funny how poorer players can alter the way you play and think about the game.
In other words – min-raising with AK is bad. Big raising or all-in is good. If he had gone in with 1,800 or more, I would have certainly laid down my hand.
> 1) Disagree. Agreed with Sidney’s that you had not business
> being in there with 9/3.
That’s what I was saying too, considering his image.
> 2) Disagree. BB made a good play. He had A/K and premium
> hand against someone playing loose, so high probability he’s
> ahead,
I don’t see how min-raising AK out of position is ever good.
> some possibility Muttrox folds
If he was thinking that, he was obviously wrong as he did get called by the 9-3 offsuit 🙂
> and decent possibility he’s way ahead. Good raise.
Yes, he’s way ahead not only of the raiser’s opening range but also of the raiser’s calling range in this spot – PRE-FLOP. Post flop, things can turn around pretty quickly when you have just AK, which is why an all in pre-flop is automatic. You never trap with AK – if you don’t hit and get action, you’re probably beat, and if you hit, you usually won’t get much action.
I think I agree with the general consensus that I played it badly. Sid, when did you turn into such a wimp? Just because you’re a Dad, you can still take risks at the table!
So basically, I was dumb to raise in the first place (agree – I had been playing loose, and it was obvious), and he was dumb to not raise more pre-flop and force me out. But once those had happened, the rest was fairly reasonable.
I do think pushing all-in was the right play. Yes, he could have had a higher pair, but I think the odds were clearly in my favor at that point. In most situations I was ahead.
(BTW, I ended up chopping 2nd place. Down to three people. Dealer calls. Small blind calls. With pocket 3s in big blind I raise. Blinds are very big, raise is almost like going all-in (which I should have done) Both call. The flop is 4-4-9. Small blind goes all-in. I decide to call (again, probably shouldn’t have, but like I said, basically pot committed). After thinking over, the dealer (who has big stack) calls also. Dealer had pocket 10s, which end up beating both my pocket 3s and the small blind’s 9-x. We both had the exact same chips and split second place. Geez, I guess I really was playing crazy, look at all this. At least I’m not sharing my horrific bad beats, where I played the guy perfectly to get all his chips in with the inferior hand, only to catch a 3-outer for a river straight.)
Will respond to Krasamir’s analysis which is pretty good, but did disagree on a couple points, and agree with Sidney’s statement.
1) Disagree. Agreed with Sidney’s that you had not business being in there with 9/3. And agreed with K’s statement that HAD you been playing tight, you could have made a play, but again, 9/3 is as bad as it gets so at least make a play where you have something a bit better in case you get called.
2) Disagree. BB made a good play. He had A/K and premium hand against someone playing loose, so high probability he’s ahead, some possibility Muttrox folds and decent possibility he’s way ahead. Good raise.
3) Agree. To your original question, the call itself was legit as it seemed you had the pot odds.
4) Agree: Terrible play on your part.
5) Agree to a certain extent. At that point, he might have been priced in with pot odds, but if he was any good, he should have a read or opinion if you had something. He should call if he thinks your bluffing, however, it was for his whole stack so he would want to be fairly certain.
Muttrox – as you know, I have been encouraging you to play more aggressively, so am proud of you for testing the waters and practicing different style of play. Just pick your spots better next time so you don’t need to rely on luck. 🙂
I don’t like just about any of the plays in this hand:
1) opening to 600 off a stack of 6000 with 9-3 offsuit from the button – this is a perfectly legitimate play, IF you’ve been relatively tight (mostly because it’s an easy hand to lay down if re-raised). If you’ve been loose, bluffing a lot AND showing down bluffs, opening with junk from the most obvious stealing position is just asking for trouble. You can expect to be played back at a lot, and folding on the button also has some value as an advertising play – think about it a bit, pick up some chips, then look at your cards again, think some more and fold – show everyone how tight you’re playing. 🙂
2) BB re-raising to 1200 with AK – min-re-raising with AK/AQ out of position is ridiculous. He can’t expect you to fold anything and 2/3 of the time he will have no idea where he is on the flop. Since a normal re-raise (to about 1800 or so) would commit him to the hand considering your stack (and as you knocked him out, his stack must have been even smaller), he should just push all in – he doesn’t have any hand yet after all, just an A high.
3) You called the min-raise – I guess you have the odds to call a min-raise in position with any 2 cards but 9-3 is so bad you should probably still fold as 600 is more than 10% of your current stack and how often will you flop something more than a marginal hand that faces a big bet on the flop?
3) flop comes 9-7-4 or so, and he c-bets 2,000 – now he’s committed, and the c-bet is reasonable (I might even go for a check raise here, considering your image – you’ll probably lead a lot after a check on this flop, and a check-raise might get you to fold something like 4x or 22/33/55/66).
4) You pushed all in over a pot-committed player who showed plenty of strength pre-flop and on the flop (he’s trying to represent a big pair for reasons unknown to me – if he was playing back at you with something like Q10, I can get it, but with AK, he should just be moving all in pre-flop) – this move is questionable at best, but you do have top pair and a read that he has nothing.
5) He calls the all-in – automatic, as he managed to pot commit himself in a spot where he is behind, instead of putting the chips in while he was ahead.
So, you got lucky, and he got what he deserved, but you both played it pretty bad overall 🙂
BTW, you can’t make a continuation bet if you don’t have the initiative – since he put the last raise pre-flop, only he can make a continuation bet 🙂
I would not have called the blinds with 9-3 offsuit. I personally don’t think you had much business in the hand in the first place. However, this guy calling an all in with just a couple of unpaired premiums–even if you have been playing loose–seems a bit of a silly move to me. I’ve gotten a little more conservative in my play, I guess.