Boston Celtics Predictions (2026-2027 season)

How are the Celtics looking for this season? Significantly better than last season, here’s why I think that.

Note 1: As everyone else has noted, the East is stronger. And there won’t have so many teams tanking. Being better than last year may not translate into as many wins.

Note 2: Note the baseline comparison… While the Celtics would be better if we still had Jaylen Brown instead of Paul George that’s not what we’re looking at.

Top Tier (the stars):

• Since Jayson Tatum didn’t play last year and Jaylen Brown is gone, let’s look at this as Tatum replacing Brown. This is likely an upgrade. Tatum has always been a little better than Brown. Now it’s Tatum’s team, he knows it, everyone knows it, and that will simplify decision making. It’s also possible that Tatum never really gets back to his old form – but the odds are strong this is an upgrade.
• I view anything Paul George can give us as bonus. It’s all about his health. A healthy Paul George is roughly equal to Jaylen Brown. If he plays 50 games and is competing in the playoffs, we’re in great shape. The odds are against this happening. The odds are that George will not play so much.
• (I actually had a math argument with AI about this. I had to bring up the associative property of addition. Summarizing these bullet points above – The Net Change in Celtics Stars = (full season of Tatum – full season of Brown) + Whatever Paul George is.)

Mid Tier:

• I expect Payton Pritchard and Derrick White to be about the same. Pritchard is always improving, but let’s not count on that. I see no reason to assume that Derrick White suddenly remembers how to shoot. If he does, fantastic, but let’s not assume it.
• I expect Neemias Queta to improve. He was the biggest surprise last year, and I see him getting even better. He looked great in the offseason.
• Mitchell Robinson will be the same as last year. That’s great!

The X Factors, aka the Energy 5:

Last year there were five Celtics who at various times played way over their heads. They are all crazy cheap against the salary cap, and all can contribute.

• Hugo González and Baylor Scheierman: These are my picks for dramatic improvement. Both have huge upside. I expect national pundits to be saying “Where did these guys come from, how do The Celtics keep finding these guys?” by midseason.
• Ron Harper Jr: Gets moderately better. He’s very skilled, just needs a little time and love.
• Luka Garza and Jordan Walsh: These two stay the same, possibly even regress. Note that staying the same is pretty good, both showed a lot last year.
• I don’t care about Sam Hauser, Mike Conley Jr. or anyone else on the depth chart. None of these guys are meaningfully going to change the team’s success. Sorry Sam.

So where does that leave us?

• The center position is a huge upgrade.
• The wings are a small to a huge upgrade, mostly depending on the health of Paul George. George is the biggest factor, but improvements from Hugo González and Baylor Scheierman will move the needle also.
• The guards are probably about the same. Maybe Derrick White and Payton Pritchard improve, maybe they don’t.

This seems pretty reasonable to me. Will it be enough to improve our record over last year? I don’t know, there is a lot of great competition, and we overperformed last year. Still, there’s every reason to be optimistic about the season. Let’s go Celtics!