2024 Muttroxia Predictions: Final Score

2024 was a good year for Muttroxia predictions.

In 2024, I made a change. Although I gave confidence levels for each prediction, I am scoring as simply right or wrong. There isn’t enough of a difference between the levels and the sample size is far too small to conclude anything.

Interestingly, Matt Yglesias came to the same conclusion, all his 2025 predictions are set at the 80% level. As I modeled these posts on his, it’s good to see we did the same tweak.

At press time, I have correctly predicted 12 out 14 (85%), with two questions removed. and one more waiting on data.

That’s much better than in 2023 (56% right). Why? Either I got better at predictions (that is the entire goal of the exercise), I got more cautious about predictions, or maybe it’s just random variation.

Sports

  • The NBA MVP will be Jokic (70%).
    • Yes. I should have specified the year. This refers to the MVP award given out in 2024, for the 2023/2024 season. For the NBA I am making awards based on half the season already played.
  • The NBA MVP will be Jokic, Luka, or Giannis (90%).
    • Yes.
  • Celtics make it to the NBA Finals (80%):
    • Yes! The boys won it all!
    • Neither University of Georgia nor University of Michigan will win the College Football National Championship (that is technically played in 2025) (80%):
  • Yes. The returning champs University of Michigan had a bad year, although they had several huge wins (beating Ohio State never gets old, and same for Alabama). Although they were ranked at #2, UGA lost to Notre Dame last night in their first CFP game.
  • Bijan Robinson will have over 1,200 yards (70%):
    • Yes. He’s at 1,693 yards and the regular season isn’t over yet.
  • The Atlanta Hawks will continue to be mediocre or worse. They’ll end up at 45 wins or worse, a winning percentage of 55% or worse as of December 31, 2024 (70%).
    • Yes. The Hawks have 18 wins and 15 losses, which is 54.5%. Whew, barely made that one! There is a lot of talk about The Hawks this year. Trae Young had modified his game and is trying to play defense, De’Andre Hunter is suddenly great, and the rookie is good. They are doing better this year than last (they finished at 43.9% last year). Fans should feel positive about the improvements, but they are still not a great team.

Six for six in sports predictions!

The Economy

  • Inflation continues to decline in 2024 (90%). The prediction is that inflation will be below 4.1 (Dec 2023) in December 2024.
    • Yes. Technically not determined yet, but c’mon. The last 11 months have all been below the benchmark, it has averaged below 3% for the year so far — this is an easy win. Enjoy your gift of a good economy Mr. Trump.
  • Average Gas Price has gas price at $3.00. on Election Day (70%):
    • No. Gas prices were around $3.20 on election day.
  • The stock market will become more unbalanced (70%).
    • I’m going to kill this question. I found many interesting sources, but nothing with a straightforward number tracked over time. JP Morgan and others see concentration at an all-time high, and believe it may/will reverse. I believe it is a consequence of true changes in the world, and will continue.
  • Electric car sales top 10% in the USA. (80%)
    • TO BE SETTLED Q3 was 8.9%, and it has risen each quarter, so maybe? It’s pretty close. By the way, this prediction was for fully electric cars. When you include hybrids, it’s over 21%. Wow, I didn’t realize it was so high.

Politics

  • None of the four Donald Trump trials finishes before election day. This does not include appeals. No verdicts. 80%.
    • NO JUDGEMENT. The New York trial finished, he was found guilty on 34 counts. But he wasn’t sentenced. I don’t know how to score this one because I didn’t define “finished” well enough.
  • Congress passes no significant legislation about immigration (90%):
    • Yes.
  • No major political figures are both impeached, and then convicted by the Senate (90%):
    • Yes.
  • Dems retain control of Senate (60%):
    • No. The GOP has 53 seats now. What a dumb prediction, I just really wanted it to be true.
  • Trump or Biden, who wins?: Nope. Pass. Next one. I can’t even talk about it. God help us.
    • NO JUDGEMENT. The fact that I wouldn’t make this prediction tells you everything. In my heart of hearts I knew what would happen. Sigh. I gave Kamala 40-45% odds of winning, and she was obviously better positioned than Biden, so I kinda did predict the outcome.

Leftovers

  • Two of these five people will die in 2024 (70%): Jimmy Carter, Ethel Kennedy, Mel Brooks, Dick Van Dyke, Alan Greenspan
    • Yes. Ethel Kennedy died on Oct 10th. Jimmy Carter died on Dec 29th. (Dick Van Dyke looks great for 99, and this video is just wonderful.)
  • Muttroxia will not have any months with over five posts after January. (80%). Last year I set this at 10 posts and was nowhere close, it’ll be a little more competitive this year.
    • Yes. The closest was July with four. I don’t expect much of a change this year.