2024 Muttroxia Predictions

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.

Old Danish saying (not Niels Bohr or Yogi Berra)

This was fun to do last year. Let’s do it again. Here are Muttroxia predictions for 2024:


  • The NBA MVP will be Jokic (70%).
  • The NBA MVP will be Jokic, Luka, or Giannis (90%). I’m sorry Jason Taytum. I love ya. You’re the best player on the best team. I love that you think you’re the MVP. But you’re not the MVP.
  • Celtics make it to the NBA Finals (80%): Last year I picked them for the Eastern Conference Finals, this year they get back to the overall Finals. Do they win? I think so, but not enough to bet on it. The West has a lot of great teams, and winning a championship is hard. A couple of injuries and it’s over. (This one was written at the beginning of the year. Right now the Celtics are murdering teams by ridiculous margins, and have good odds to win it all. But fair is fair, I didn’t believe that at the beginning of the year.)
  • Neither University of Georgia nor University of Michigan will win the College Football National Championship (that is technically played in 2025) (80%):
  • Bijan Robinson will have over 1,200 yards next year (70%): New coach will give him so many touches.
  • The Atlanta Hawks will continue to be mediocre or worse. They’ll end up at 45 wins or worse next season. Unfortunately, we won’t know the answer to that until April 2025. So the prediction is that they will have a winning percentage of 55% or worse as of December 31, 2024 (70%).

The Economy

  • Inflation continues to decline in 2024 (90%). Last year I had troubles by not selecting a clear source. In 2024, I have one.
    • Inflation for December 2023 was 4.1. The prediction is that inflation will be below that in December 2024.
  • Average Gas Price has gas price at $3.00. on Election Day (70%):
  • The stock market will become more unbalanced (70%). I will take the top 10 stocks of 2023 and calculate their share of the total market, and do the same in 2024. I expect there to be even more concentrations at the top. I don’t have sources yet, probably Investopedia.
  • Electric car sales top 10% in the USA. (80%) Q4 of 2023 was 8.1%. This was big growth over 2022 but subsidies are declining. Consumer interest seemed to top off, but I still feel confident it will rise even more.


  • None of the four Donald Trump trials finishes before election day. This does not include appeals. No verdicts. 80%.
  • Congress passes no significant legislation about immigration (90%):
  • No major political figures are both impeached, and then convicted by the Senate (90%):
  • Dems retain control of Senate (60%): I feel very unsure of this, the GOP will be out in force, and unlike last cycle the GOP has kept away from the nuts. But what the heck, I’m feeling optimistic.
  • Trump or Biden, who wins?: Nope. Pass. Next one. I can’t even talk about it. God help us.


  • Two of these five people will die in 2024 (70%): A new gruesome category! Jimmy Carter, Ethel Kennedy, Mel Brooks, Dick Van Dyke, Alan Greenspan
  • Muttroxia will not have any months with over five posts after January. (80%). Last year I set this at 10 posts and was nowhere close, it’ll be a little more competitive this year.

3 thoughts on “2024 Muttroxia Predictions”

  1. “Unbalanced” is a term I made up. I’m sure there’s a better one in use for the same concept. The idea is that an increasing share of the market is from a decreasing number of big stocks. Tesla, Apple, and a few others have a much bigger weight than the top several stocks did 100 years ago (I think).

    This is similar to the superstar effect in the creative world (Taylor Swift commands a much bigger audience than the biggest star of 100 years ago), or the Gini coefficient in economics. Technology and unregulated capitalism lead to winners getting bigger wins.

  2. can you explain what it means to have the stock market “unbalanced” ? I’m not familiar with this term/concept. Thanks

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