The case against Trump has these major elements:
- He had an affair with Stormy Daniels.
- He covered up the affair.
- He falsified business records.
- His cover up was election interference.
Are all these elements true and proven?
He had an affair with Stormy Daniels: Unquestionably true. The evidence is strong, consistent with Trump’s past behavior and both of their actions. This is not a crime by itself.
He covered up the affair: Unquestionably true. Also not a crime.
He falsified business records: Unquestionably true. The evidence is overwhelming. If he had simply paid her out of his personal accounts, there would be no case at all. Since he paid her through corporate accounts, it is falsification of business records. These are misdemeanors.
His cover up was election interference: This is where it falls apart. The theory is that if had not covered this up, the public would have known about the affair, and coming on the heels of the Access Hollywood tape, it might have swung the election. This is true, it might have! But it is not election interference. Election interference is things like stuffing the ballot box, threatening election officials, and storming the US Capitol. Election interference is interfering with the mechanisms of the election process. Election interference is not trying to influence public opinion.
Consider some other examples:
- 2020 Joe Biden has his machine in South Carolina lean hard on local papers to support him in the key Democratic primary.
- Joe Biden agrees to a full interview, but only with the Smartless podcast, not the New York Times.
- Republicans lean heavily on Fox News and other outlets to continue hyping stories they think will hurt Democrats – immigration, Gaza, crime, etc.
None of these are true election interference. (Warning: I am not a lawyer.) They are just politics. Trying to influence what people believe and prioritize to change their voting behavior is not election interference, it is normal democracy.
When you take away election interference, you are left with Trump using his business to pay off Stormy Daniels, and lying about it in the business accounting. That is not a felony. None of the thirty four felony charges hold up. Therefore, he should be acquitted.
TL:DNR: Trump did everything he is accused of, but that’s not really a felony. Therefore, acquital.