It’s really been over for over a month. But this just put the final nail in the coffin.
WASHINGTON — Senator Barack Obama on Sunday captured a forceful endorsement from former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and announced he had shattered campaign finance records in September, gaining an immense financial edge that will allow him to overwhelm Senator John McCain’s efforts in every corner of the country.
I love how this comment from a few days ago was on your mind enough that you had to come back and attempt a belated defense of the girly drinks. 🙂
“You weren’t there when in 2004 he was literally two fisting girly drinks as the election returns came in. Bold predictions of Republican downfall were made prematurely, Schnapps, Lynchburg Lemonade, and Bailey’s Irish Cream were consumed, and he woke up the next day with a hangover and a second term of George W. Bush.”
Let’s be fair. It was only one girly drink, white russians. Indeed I was drinking them in non-girly amounts. My theory was that if Kerry won I was going to get drunk to celebrate, if Bush won I was going to get drunk to mourn. Either way, I was getting drunk, so why not start early.
Actually, the children naming veto rule is sweet! I like it. Lots of strategy involved. I wish I came up with it when I had my kids. Along the same lines, here’s another tactic I’ve seen employed by the wives of friends when they couldn’t agree on a name. Husband..”let’s narrow it down and figure it out – we gotta decide between Brady, KG or Turner, and I absolutely hate the name Muttrox” Wife..”sure, but Muttrox is at least on the list, okay?”. After days and weeks and months on not making progress….wife says “let’s wait until we are at the hospital and look at the baby and see if we are inspired..” Husband “makes sense, maybe the baby will look like one of the names and it’ll make it easier to decide.” Wife in mid-delivery, mid-push, “I want to name the baby Muttrox, damn it!” Husband “okay”. I’ve heard of this tactic use with at least 2 of my friends.
Lots to comment on …
1. Sid’s first paragraph on Muttrox during the 2004 convention was very worthy of a lol. Girly drinks, indeed.
2. Thanks for the credit on the kid names vetoes. Hey, if there’s a decision to be made, no matter how trivial, most of the fun is devising complex decision rule criteria. Muttrox — remember the infamous Operation Chix? A list of a good 20 or 30 options on what to do on a boring Saturday night in college, including cruising for chicks (very laughable, but at least we knew how laughable it was at the time). I can’t remember what we actually did, but somehow I think Pinball Pete’s was involved…
3. I still think Muttrox is right — it’s over. And we have the real Blubs to thank for that line.
Two replies for Sid comments:
McCain swingback: 538 actually predicted that, which I thought was pretty impressive. They said they expected him to gain a couple points back.
Naming children vetos: Actually, that was Blubs. It was just a great story that sounds like something I would do. But I didn’t.
This Muttrox Curse is serious. You weren’t there when in 2004 he was literally two fisting girly drinks as the election returns came in. Bold predictions of Republican downfall were made prematurely, Schnapps, Lynchburg Lemonade, and Bailey’s Irish Cream were consumed, and he woke up the next day with a hangover and a second term of George W. Bush.
With regard to this fivethirtyeight stuff….I tried to comment on this before, but only half of the comment posted….
Muttrox, you of all people–a student and manipulator of the rules in any game, or anything requiring strategic thinking–should appreciate how sensitive the electoral vote is to a minor swing in opinion in just one or two states (my favorite example of your rule manipulation was your strategy of forcing Mrs. Muttrox to use her limited number of vetoes when you were naming your first child). The polls are trending in McCain’s direction in recent days, and it won’t take much of a move to erase Obama’s significant electoral lead.
Be afraid of this Muttrox chest thumping.
I love that Muttrox makes bold prediction. Most of the people I associate with are so conservative with everything. Muttrox has cajones and he backs it up with research. Vote “yes” on Proposition Muttrox – a “yes” votes means Muttrox continues to trash talk, make bold predictions, and offers controversial opinions. A “no” vote means Muttrox becomes boring and will entail a loss of readership to his blog.
Sid, you have to lay out the Muttroxia curse. It’s funnier when you say it. It’s not about whether I win or lose, it’s about announcing something is in the bag. That announcement seems to trigger bad things.
He’s clearly mastered the art of beating a bunch of poker clowns–politics, not so much.
And what’s with this Muttrox curse anyway? In the past few years, his favorite football team has won three Super Bowls and his favorite basketball team basically went from worst-to-first in one season. Plus, he tempts fate by writing about his poker nights, and he’s like $600 in the black. Wish I could be frigging cursed like that.
It’s over. Jinx or no jinx. I agree with many of the comments made here, including a) McCain having nothing going for him, b) Obama’s gigantic money and get-out-the-vote advantages are too overwhelming, and c) reading fivethirtyeight.com several times a day (thanks go to Muttrox for pointing out that site).
McCain must be so frustrated, since even when he makes valid points, nobody listens to him. His comment about Obama spending more on negative ads than anyone in presidential race history is probably accurate, and yet 2-to-1 people think that McCain is running a more negative race. Why – probably because Obama is also doing more positive ads than anyone in presidential history too, while McCain doesn’t have the cash for the ads to actually improve his reputation. That, and whenever Palin gets her time in the news, it’s almost always of her bashing Obama with arguments that just can’t be sold to the majority of the country (palling with terrorists, socialist, etc.).
I’ve got some champagne chilling for election night. Jinx schminx. Go Obama!
wow…that cut off about half of my comment.
I look at fivethirtyeight not daily, but several times a day (that site and Politico have me hooked) and am aware of the analysis there. You’ll no doubt grant that the main theme in the past several days has been the slight resurgence of McCain in national polls, as well as certain state polls. Even a minor change in one state or two will have a significant impact on McCain’s win %, currently
I am well aware of the Muttrox curse. I was planning to call the election two weeks ago, but decided to see if the debates changed anything. They did, they tilted it more in Obamas favor.
McCain literally has nothing going for him right now. His ground game is dwarfed. He is being outspent by enormous margins. His policies don’t give him any edge, they probably hurt him. His party is reviled, and the president he lapdogged for four years has the lowest approval ratings in history. Newspapers and influential moderates are breaking for Obama. His VP selection is a national joke. Obama is sure and steady and never gives McCain an opening. McCain’s negative ads just drive his own reputation downwards.
Really, what could swing the election for McCain? Even another 9/11 would probably work to Obama’s favor at this point.
Empirically, the definitive source is fivethirtyeight.com. I suggest giving it a long look to see just how lopsided things are.
It is almost certainly over, but everyone should watch Inside The Bubble to see how truly painful it can be to be certain you have won, and suddenly find out that all the polls were wrong.
http://snagfilms.com/films/title/inside_the_bubble
Comment from Mrs. Muttrox-
Sid, I couldn’t have said it better myself. After all this time, Muttrox still doesn’t get the concept of “jinxing”.
I hope so, but I remain unconvinced. I agree that McCain isn’t going to win the popular vote, but it doesn’t take much of a swing within just a few states to have a complete reversal of the electoral vote. More importantly, you really need to not write about politics or get over-confident–you’re like a black cloud for Democrats. Remember your drunken Kerry debacle? Got cocky, started drinking early, and lost. This is like drinking with two weeks left. If we lose, I blame you.