Just a couple weeks ago I predicted that Biden would not drop out of the race. I was wrong. History is made.
I did predict that Kamala would pick up endorsements from everyone in the first 48 hours, would get to the convention fully anointed and in control of both Democratic money and delegates. Sadly, I wasn’t at a computer and only said it in a phone conversation. It wasn’t a hard prediction, little credit to be awarded.
So what happens next? The Trump campaign has been fearing this for a long time. Their campaign was explicitly built to go after Joe Biden particularly. (I recommend this interview about the Trump Campaign strategy. It is far more discipline and smart than I realized.) Without Biden, many of the GOP attacks are irrelevant or greatly weakened. While Trump was surprisingly under control during the debate (and the first fifteen minutes of his acceptance speech), he will get absolutely crushed in a debate where voters can see how crazy and old he is without Biden for comparison.
Trump will not be able to control himself for very long. As Harris starts going after him and scoring points, and his usual attacks don’t land, he is going to revert to racism and sexism. He won’t be able to help himself. I don’t think that plays well. The GOP has done a great job of working to attract minorities, he’s going to sabotage all that work. And though Harris may have been selected for VP because of her gender, and she is very vocal on abortion, she has never made gender central to her pitch, unlike Hilary in 2016.
What are the odds of her winning? I put it at 40-45%. In the end, it is hard to change the minds of voters. This will help, but the advantages are still with the GOP. Trump has been ahead for a year, and I don’t think this will help enough. Obviously I hope I’m wrong. (Quick straw poll of my political friends – all were in the 40-55% range.)