In the beginning of 2023, I published several predictions about the year. Let’s see how we’re doing. Sorry about the numbering.
- Biden officially announces his re-election campaign (90%):
Yes.
- Donald Trump doesn’t spend any time in jail, house arrest etc. He lives the year free. (90%):
Yes. It’s likely that none of the pending cases will be finished with trials.
- Congress passes no significant legislation about immigration (90%):
Yes.
- Muttroxia will not have any months with over ten posts after January. (80%):
Yes. Sigh.
- The NBA MVP will be Jokic or Giannis (80%) if the Celtics don’t win the championship. Luka, you don’t make your bad team any better and no one likes you. Hard to win an MVP that way. As good as Taytum is, if he doesn’t win the banner, all his stats will be discounted (“He just had a better team”).
No, the MVP was Embid. However, after the finals, Jokic is generally accepted as the best player in the league. I think this just points to the stupidity of handing out awards before the season is over. - Donald Trump doesn’t have any final civil judgements found against him personally (that is, no fines or consequences) (70%)
No. Trump was found guilty in the sexual abuse of E Jean Carroll. He is appealing, so technically the prediction is still true (I said “final”), but the spirit of the prediction was clearly wrong.
- Inflation is below 4% by the end of 2023 (70%)
Probably true. Right now it is 4.05% and has trending down every month.
- Average Gas Price ends the year below $2.50. (70%)
No. It declined sharply through then end of 2022, and has stayed around $3.60 the whole year.
- The Justice Department does not charge Donald Trump personally for anything related to Jan 6th. (70%)
Yes.
- Celtics make it to the Eastern Conference finals (70%) (Yes, I’m keeping this low, there are a lot of good teams in the East. Things go wrong, winning is hard.)
Glad I lowballed this! Yes, the Celtics went to the Eastern Conference Finals and choked to the Heat.
- Electric car sales top 10% in the USA. (70%) They are currently at 6%, this would be almost a doubling of share in one year.
Q1 was 7%. We’ll see.
- UGA will repeat as college football champs. (Sorry Michigan, I gotta call ’em like I see ’em.) (60%)
Yep. Go Dawgs!
- With abortion policy at the state level, there will be some further degradation, but generally there won’t be a massive rollback of abortion rights. (60%, but don’t know how to measure this.)
On balance, I’ll call this a no. It might not have been as bad as feared, but it’s been bad enough.
- Joe Biden is not impeached (The House does not formally approve and bring impeachment charges to the Senate.) (60%)
Yes. I think this’ll stick.
- By the end of 2023, I’ll forgot I made this post and need a reminder (80%).
No. Been looking forward to this one.
Final interim score: 9/15, or 60%. That seems pretty good.